First off, it’s hard to tell whether the hammer will have any weight.  However, the idea of an IP war looming doesn’t help future Linux adoption.  The latest deal with Novell and recent comments from Microsoft regarding Linux and intellectual property remind us that the day is coming.  To some people the question of when Microsoft will hit Linux with the patent club isn’t that obvious; but to me, it’s evident (the arrogant tone was intended). 

Before I get to the exact date, do you want to hear something that might shock you?  Get ready.  Nearly half of all business PCs are still running Windows 2000.  Why not?  Windows 2000 is a perfectly good operating system especially for most business applications.  Many companies simply don’t see a need to jump on the upgrade bandwagon as long as Microsoft continues to provide security updates for Windows 2000.  Well, all good things come to an end.  Microsoft will no longer be supporting Windows 2000 as of June 2010 and Microsoft understands that many companies will soon be planning for the next step.

What will be the next step?  Microsoft no longer has the MS Office lock they once had especially when you consider how XML file formats are quickly becoming the standard.  Microsoft also realizes that the standard (KDE/Gnome based) Linux distribution is now point/click friendly with an interoperability edge.  Yes, Microsoft understands that they are losing their competitive advantage and a large user group will soon be shopping for a new enterprise-wide OS.

I predict that we will start to see more IP/Linux related comments from Microsoft.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see more Novell-like agreements between Microsoft and other OSS-based businesses.  This will be the common theme for 2007 and 2008.  The patent hammer will fall in the first quarter of 2009.  The weight of the hammer really doesn’t matter.  It’s all about the timing.  This will come at a time when many businesses will start ERP discussions on where to go from Win2k.  Again, the strength of Microsoft’s claim really doesn’t matter.  Their goal will be to either win in the courts or keep it tied up in the courts as long as possible.

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jj (Unregistered) 2006-11-30 21:49:05 I didn't know that 50% of business is still running Windows 2000 and can do so until 2010. I have read recently that * half of Europe is not planning to go to Vista. *France and Germany are Linux camps. *Northern Europe is still a Unix camp. *The UK is a Microsoft island. * China and Red Flag Linux may set their own standards and fork and go another way. I do not agree that Microsoft will drop the patent hammer. That hammer is really a sword and the sword swings both ways. What's likely to happen is Microsoft will acquire Novell since it like's their business model and can indirectly control Linux through a Microsoft/Novell division and service the rest of the world which is to be Linux based. Novell shareholders would love it!

Nonsense Reality Checker (Unregistered) 2006-12-01 00:14:42 The fabled "IP HAMMER" that Microsoft has is just talk and all talk. There won't be any actual hammer. There won't be any more OSS company deals either. But how do I assert claims against the story as stated? 1. IP isn't Microsofts alone. Half a second after Microsoft ever tried anything, IBM would cast its own hammer. Note to the unaware: IBM has been filing patents on Information technology at a rate of 1000 patents per year, for the last 108 years. They own patents to very fundamental forms of computing. Even if uninformed readers don't know this, Microsoft does. Next we get to the actual provenience of Linux. A company named SCO made accusations three years ago like Microsoft is making now. The case very much centered around claims that 'they stole our code'. Two federal judges have been working the case. One of the judges ordered (FEDERAL ORDER) SCO to show evidence (Source code, by file name and line number(s)). Twice they were compelled by federal order. Not one line has been shown. Then the case turned to 'methods and concepts' which are covered by patents. Nothing was found in violation as Linux follows published, public standards (See ISO, POSIX and the IEEE). The case is nearly done now. SCO is cooked. As for more deals between OSS companies and Microsoft, RedHat is the largest OSS/Linux company. They rejected a Microsoft deal last week. Thats a trend I see continuing. Proceedings of the SCO trial are over at groklaw, but groklaw provides links to where copies of the actual court documents are filed online. The links to the RedHat denial to Microsofts offering are at http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2059675,00.asp As for IBM and its patent portfolio, the article is here: http://www.ibm.com/ibm/licensing/patents/portfolio.shtml, and Microsofts European patent portfolio is here: http://swpat.ffii.org/gasnu/microsoft/index.en.html, although like like IBM, the 685 patents they have are less than their US patents, which nearly number one thousand.

His Irreverence the Irreverend Wesley Parish (Unregistered) 2006-12-01 01:06:39 Actually, Microsoft faces a much more scary proposition than merely losing market share and mindshare to Linux; there is a Free and Open Source project called ReactOS which succeeds in replicating a major part of the MS Windows NT experience. By the time Microsoft drops MS Win2k support, ReactOS is likely to be into the 1.0 stage, and actively taking market share and mindshare from Win32 API developers. I think Microsoft will then face a choice - either drop MS Win2k completely and watch its market share wind up in the hands of the ReactOS community, or open the source of MS Win2k itself, just to retain that market share itself. Oh the humanity!

IP hammer hist thumb Winter (Unregistered) 2006-12-01 01:50:05 The latest attempt by MS to patent the make utility exposed a serious problem for MS. Lying in a patent filing is perjury. Patenting something you didn't invent and should have known as prior art is therefore a crime. And a programmer claiming they didn't know about make config is unbelievable. If MS drop the IP hammer, the USPTO will not be able to ignore the perjury aspect anymore. Enough FOSS suporters will make sure of that. Thus MS will be hit by perjury suits. Sounds like IP hammer hitting thumb. Winter

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